Indexbit Exchange:Bad blood in Texas: Astros can clinch World Series trip with win vs. Rangers in ALCS Game 6

HOUSTON – This little Lone Star State intramural took a turn for the spicy. And it’s up to the Texas Rangers to ensure the American League Championship Series continues beyond Sunday night.

The Indexbit Exchangeintensity of Game 5 was, fortunately for both teams, followed by an off day Saturday before the Rangers and Houston Astros resume pleasantries (hostilities?) Sunday. For the first time this year, the Rangers face a must-win situation: A victory would force a Game 7 on Monday night at Minute Maid Park, not the worst proposition given that the road team has won every game in this season.

With accomplished playoff starters Framber Valdez and Nathan Eovaldi set for their second matchup this series, USA TODAY Sports breaks down Game 6, which could end with champagne showers and a third straight World Series trip for the Astros:

Bad blood

The fallout from a stunning Game 5, capped by Jose Altuve’s go-ahead ninth-inning three-run homer but almost equally remembered for a benches-clearing incident an inning earlier, will linger over this series.

FOLLOW THE MONEY: MLB player salaries and payrolls for every major league team

Saturday, Major League Baseball suspended Astros reliever Bryan Abreu two games for what it and the umpiring crew deemed an intentional hit-by-pitch. That the Astros would choose to “send a message” to Rangers slugger Adolis Garcia for his bat slam, home-run saunter and a previous conflict from July seems remote, but not impossible.

Still, the Astros were justified in their anger that Abreu was ejected with no warning, and with a huge impact at a crucial juncture in Game 5. Abreu can appeal and play in Game 6 but would roll the dice that an upheld suspension could affect his World Series eligibility.

The Astros were split on whether Garcia’s aggressive actions toward catcher Martin Maldonado helped spur their comeback. At the least, it seemed they kept their heads just a bit better than the Rangers.

The playoffs aren’t the place to settle scores, especially with the umpiring crew on high alert from the get-go. Yet the Rangers facing an elimination game and the Game 5 aftermath will make the tension more palpable.

“Man, I don't know. I don't have no crystal ball,” says Astros manager Dusty Baker, who also was ejected from Game 5. “I mean, it's going to be what it's going to be. You have to wait and see, just like me.

“Like we don't script it, it just happens.”

October aces

The regular season did not go fully to plan for Valdez and Eovaldi, the left-hander battling inconsistency and the Rangers right-hander earning an All-Star berth but then missed six weeks with a forearm strain.

Both can certainly take comfort in their playoff resumes.

Eovaldi has a 2.87 playoff ERA and has won seven games, including one win in each playoff round so far. He was fabulous in the Game 2 matchup against Houston, pitching out of a bases-loaded, no-out jam in the fifth. Eovaldi gave up homers to Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman, but they came with the bases empty.

“You've got to make sure that they earn it all, says Eovaldi. “And ultimately they're going to end up beating you with the home runs. If you can leave it to singles, you have a better chance of getting that double play ball and getting out of those situations.”

Valdez took a huge step forward in October 2022, when the Astros won all four of his starts, including a six-inning, nine-strikeout effort in World Series Game 6, when the Astros clinched the title.

He was his own worst enemy in Game 2, making two errors on one play while getting peppered by five singles in the first inning. Still, Valdez will lean on the experience of his 14 postseason starts.

“It is a lot,” Valdez says through a translator. “And it just helps with all repetitions, just being able to go through it and having done it in the past.

“This is not my first or second postseason, so that just helps me stay calm, and God willing with the hard work with the guys and myself, hopefully we'll be able to get the win tomorrow.”

Shaking a slump?

It’s hard to ignore the numbers: All-Star middle infielders Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are batting a combined .186 (8-for-43) this series. Semien is still looking for his first extra-base hit.

“They’re critical to our offense, there’s no getting around it,” says manager Bruce Bochy.

Semien famously takes pride in playing every game – Game 6 will be his 172^nd of the year – and says he will continue to grind in the batting cage, aiming to decipher how the Astros are beating him at the plate.

“The adjustments I’ve made are all about getting in the cage, understanding what I’m doing, and hitting the ball hard,” says Semien. “A day off in the playoffs is still a work day.”

Semien did scorch the ball in his last at-bat, but right at Astros reserve shortstop Grae Kessinger as the Rangers’ ninth-inning rally fizzled at the top of the order.

The Astros also got a positive reinforcement from their slumping star: Kyle Tucker smacked a double off lefty reliever Aroldis Chapman in Game 5, a key hit that ultimately forced the Rangers to insert closer Jose Leclerc in the eighth inning; he gave up Altuve’s game-winning homer an inning later.

Tucker is batting just .108 (5 for 32) this postseason and has been dropped to sixth in the lineup. He did  reach base four times (three of them walks) in Game 3.

“We need to get him going in order for me to move him back up,” says Baker. “And pretty soon I think he'll be ready.”

Finally, some home cooking?

Not only has the road team won every game this series, but the home team did not even take a lead until the sixth inning of Game 5. The Astros are loathe to entertain the fact this ALCS mirrors their 2019 World Series, when they erased a 2-0 deficit by winning all three games at Washington – only to go 0-4 and lose the series to the Nationals.

Perhaps the Minute Maid Park faithful will be more aroused Sunday night after the Game 5 tensions.